Fork in the road.

At a certain point we come to a point where we have to make a choice. We make this choice with the knowledge of our past and with a rough calculation of our expected outcome.

I am at that point. And I worry about the outcome. It requires work. But we can do it.

Growth therapy

I took this picture in my driveway. I own an old home. We have replaced many things in the house since we procured it, things like the heating and air condition, the windows the insulation, to name a few.  And my feelings about owning a home has evolved too. From fear ....to acceptance, to fondness.

Where am I going with this.... There are still things that need to be changed about our home. Like the driveway, or the kitchen's wall. But changing, or fixing them is about time money and the willingness and motivation to do it.

Same thing about my mental growth. These days I'm motivated.

Do people still blog for fun?

I remember the early days of blogging. I'm not sure that people do that any more. I guess with twitter and tumblr and FB, it is easier to drown our fears in observing and commenting on our friends lives.

I have just been drowning mine in work.

Why the sky is blue and why soundbites make for a dumber planet.

When my daughter was younger, she was very curious about everything. She would ask questions like "Dad, why is the sky blue?" or " Why do the rain drops look like circles on your car, but not on mom's?"

When ever she asked those awesome questions my follow up question would be, would you like the short answer or the long one?  And then when she said "the short one" I would proceed with the physics explanation for the blue sky and why we see color (5 minutes) and then I would say but the short answer is ...the sky is blue just like the sea is blue, because they are deep, and our brains and our parents say that the color that we are seeing is blue. As for the rain droplets on my car, I would explain to her the effect of surfactants on the surface tension of fluids, and the short answer, "because I get the more expensive car wash".

My daughter is now in the sixth grade, and she is still curious. When she asks me questions she expects me to give her the long, and short answer to the questions she now asks, such as "Why are girls mean?" or "How can I tell if a boy likes me?"  To me, it makes sense to know the whole story, so that ones reaction to a specific challenge will yield sound attempts at a solution. And I believe that in teaching my daughter to expect more from an "expert" really helps her to become an expert.

I say all this because a very puzzling development in politics last week. The Department of health said, and I paraphrase, "all employers should pay for contraception as part of preventative care." The catholic bishops countered - why should we pay for something we consider a sin. Obama rebutted - well women will have to receive contraceptive care cost free, the insurance will cover it.

I listen to the debate, and I'm here rolling my eyes, thinking about my family's "separate but equal" checking accounts. We have two joint  checking accounts at the same bank that we both have access and signing rights to. Our salary's are deposited into our "own checking accounts."  Sure mortgage payment  comes from my salary, and my wife transfers some of her paycheck so I can cover my car-note, which gets paid from my checking account. I can ask who pays for my car? Is it me or my wife? Or does it really matter, as long as we have transportation to go to work?

The reality of health coverage, which Americans still insist on calling insurance, is that it is covered by many parties. They include individual, who pays a salary deduction, the employer who gets a tax deduction (i.e the government or the taxpayers, which means the individual pays twice), and the insurance company who invests the premiums of the young, and the healthy (and if the insurance company makes a loss on the investment they get another tax deduction)  so that they can have big returns to pay for the sick,  less healthy and elderly.  All of the money goes into a pool, which then pays for health coverage, which includes paying for contraception as part of preventative care.  And that is just the beginning of the long answer.  I suppose we should ask for an itemized version of our healthcare payments.

Still it seems that the Catholic church was happy with the presidents final offer, and people are still mad about Obama care, which is really an iteration of the healthcare coverage that we the taxpayers already pay for.

When my daughter was younger, she was happier with the short answer.  Now the short answers, to her are insulting her intelligence.

On flag runners and the art of persuasion.

In think tanks, where smart people brain storm about how a product or direction will have influence on a company, or a policy, it is easy to head down the path of crazy.  There are usually two types of influential people in these groups -the flag runners, and the logical ones.

Flag runners are emotional, fired up. They believe that their idea is the best thing since the iPhone. And no matter how much Siri does not work well with people with dialects, flag runners believe and promote their idea, and usually get support.  The logical ones, on the other hand sit around quietly pondering the theatrics, and quietly tries to explain the complexities of the problem at hand, but depending on how they communicate their ideas they often go ignored (The quiet ones also are good fire fighters, since they usually get tasked with  putting  out the fires caused by the flag runners).

Of course in that same room of high level thinkers, there are deciders.  Sadly, the deciders are too shortsighted by their limited MBA, or ME degrees that their decision is also based on emotion.  When people don’t understand a problem, they vote with their gut.  Understanding this dynamic, and transposing this limited understanding of the human element, I would like to make a huge leap to political elections. Here the deciders are supposedly more diverse. But they are also limited by their lack of information. Many voters have limited knowledge about how government works, how programs, or departments get built, and about the role of government in business, civics and society. Sure governments tend to decide these issues for themselves,  but implementation of an idea takes time, dedication and resources.

I used to think that government could be run by computers. But I have come to realize that computers are not smart enough.. yet. Governing is complex.  Leaders have to consider the billions of needs of individuals, towns, communities, businesses. It then has to prioritize the needs, take care of the ones that gets screwed by the big ideas, while sill appearing to care for all.  At the same time it has to be not for profit, make a profit and feed itself. Then, it has to pander to specific groups, (more to those that “donate” more, be legal, appear moral and like Google, make the bold statement that they will not be evil.  I wonder how many cores that computer would need, and how many Facebook timelines it would need to follow. Or both.

But back to persuasion. One can be logical, but emotional.  But what flag runners need, like most successful people, is a good altruistic, logical, empathetic, introverted spouse.

A random ramble.

I just wanted to write something smart, but the words are just not coming to my mind.  Maybe I should read the paper for a while to start thinking out of my head.  But that's not working.  Seems like its going to be a long year.  I ready for it.

Happy New Year!

On having a world view, and why we probably don't need government.

I remember 2007.  The US was at war, business was booming and forward looking economists were shouting like crazy people in a downtown square: "this economical boom is unsustainable... are we headed for recession?" At the same the US was hated by many countries in the world because of  the Bush doctrine on foreign policy.  While these views were not the popular  in mainstream American media at the time, I was aware of it. The reason, I had a paper route, and listened to the BBC morning broadcasts on KGOU, our local NPR station.

I must say that this was not the easiest part of my life, and being a grad student with wife and kid, makes one do some pretty hard things, but as much as the paper route gave me about two hundred extra dollars per month, listing to international news helped to broaden my understanding of the world and helped me to keep an ear on the railroad of international business.

Seeing how the great recession of 2008 started, ended, and continues to affect the world economy, it is easy to see that many of our leaders have a very limited understanding about how the world works. Or that they are so caught up in their ideology that they are unwilling to get out of the box that is quickly turning into a coffin.  Let me try to explain this with my opinion of how four of the world's governments have dealt with economic policy since 2008.  I choose 2008 because it was a global economic resetting period, a view that many fail to admit.




China.  In 2008, China GDP growth was about 9.6%  and until now, China's government continued investing in the country's growth.

Germany. Through the recession years, the majority of the private sector stopped hiring, increased R&D spending. Government worked on making social nets stronger and cheaper. Invested in renewable energy especially solar.

US. Private business cut jobs at all levels to make business leaner.  Exported manufacturing to China. Invested in hydrocarbon exploration. Cut some R&D. Government applied stimulus, bailed out banking industry, tried to sure up social nets, government stalled.

UK. Austerity. Cut government spending.  Cut social net spending. Was unwilling to help financial sector for fear of "moral hazard"


As a scientist, my work is based on the belief that one point does not a trend make.  I won't even accept four points to make a callibration curve.  And while I am aware that the few macro econominc decisions made by the governments and business of these countries do not dictate the response of the economy as a whole. Normalizing the values and applying firm statistical functions to the data helps us to realize that we can learn from each other and make better economic decisions.

I can assume that policy leaders have access to the same data that I have. After all its free online.  But then again, most people get their information from The Daily Show and Fox News.  But I digress.

The point I am trying to make here is that we have a lot of data to drive our policy decisions, yet we govern on political ideology.  So why do we need government?