Catching the American dream.

This note is about American exceptionalism.  This is the idea that the united states of America is the awesomest place on the planet earth. In. The US anyone can be vertically mobile. Anyone can become anything they want to if they try hard enough.  While this idea is true, in general, this can happen anywhere in the world.
It may seem that I am highlighting the obvious, but if we consider how the statement of American exceptionalism, which for convience we will hereafter abbreviate as AE, is shouted around we would think that it was easy.

Truth be told, it is easier to become happy than achieve the American dream.

Bold statement right? Not really.  I started from zero. And, from this point I can see why people do all kinds of strange things to just taste a little of the pervibial American pie.  From an outsiders perspective, poor people in America own cars,have have cool gadgets like big televisions, smart phones and such.  Food is cheap. And one can find any job to make a living.

Of course the missleading notions  of the above statements is that just because one can pay ones bills they are self actualized.  That expensive objects make most people happy. 
These ponderings have lead me to conclude that AE is BS.

Lights

Sometimes,we are afraid to look outside especially when the sky is not so bright outside.  Sometimes the darkness makes us sad.  Bit what can we do?  Sometimes wee get paralysed by our fear.  Sometes there is nothing we can do about it.

Or can we?

Light is natural, it is also man made. Light is also the product of energy conversion.  Which leads to the observation that we can produce it if we try hard enough.

On belief and looking at another year.

So the year is winding down. One more week and lots of change has happened in the previous fifty. From one where big ideas and lots of faith kinda paid off. One where belief in a higher power has helped me to see and understand that this here life is full of possibilities, especially for those who believe.
So what do we have to believe in? Everything, and nothing.
First we have to believe in ourselves. Yea the voices in our heads are saying that we are great. We must believe that above the doubt and doubters. We must believe that we are competent at at least one thing. Don't believe the words of doubt. Do believe in infinite possibility.

Second believe that if we want to accomplish anything, we can get it done. This is easier done than said. A lot of energy is wasted trying to convince your self that you can't jump over th hurdle. Just jump. If you fall you get up and keep running. Failure is an option. Quiting isn't.

Third, there will be screw ups. Murphy's law and I paraphrase: shit must happen. Therefore in the plans allow twenty percent for: miscalculation, haters, the man, and incompetent humans. These are natural factors of living on our planet. And if you don't budget for them you can only expect eighty percent. See why over achievers put in one hundred and twenty percent? If this statement makes you feel overwhelmed, consider the above three paragraphs. And believe. Everyone can do anything they believe they can do. If you want to get it done you will get it done.

Maybe I should stop numbering now. Next, pray. Whether you pray to the God of the christians, or the gods of the greeks, hell the sun god, or the lack of a God, pray. Prayer is a way of admitting that " although I am awesome I am nothing without the influence of a greater power. My human shell is not powerful enough to accomplish 120 percent. And by myself I can't pass with nothing greater than a C. Prayer makes us have hope, and makes others feel obligated to help us. Prayer makes realize that it is okay to ask for help. Prayer makes us realize that it is okay to fall. It makes us diminish the ego.
Finally prayer urges us to believe.

Be thankful for what you have. When you are thankful for what you have, you begin to see that you could be worse, or worst off. Be thankful, and then work for more.

So these are the lessons that I learned. References to you or us, were the lessons that I learned. I am sure the can work for everyone.

Lucas K Fontenelle

Starting fresh

It can be amazing to do a fresh install.  Delete all the crap and start over.  Sure you have to remember all of the serial numbers to the important programs. And sure you have to back up the important stuff.  and sure it takes at least 30 minutes to flash the system.  But in the end the performance is awesome.
The message always perform a fresh install yearly.

Carrying loads.

In life we carry many loads. Some are physical, like glasses or bowls, and some are mental- worries are an example. Some things, or people are built or trained to carry heavy loads. Growing up, we had a small part of or farm in a valley, and on harvest days we had to carry most of the loads uphill. By the time I was twelve, I could carry about one hundred and thirty pounds of cabbage for about half a mile uphill.

Of course, I didn't start with the heavy basket of cabbage. As far back as I can remember, the loads started light. When I was five I carried a gallon of water, by the time I was ten, it was a box of tomatoes which was between thirty and fifty pounds. To an outsider this may seem strange, but for us it was fun. I was trying to out- do my brothers. So I learned fast and got stronger faster. The point here is that given the right conditions, we can learn to become stronger, we can learn to carry heavy loads.

There also exists another way. Instead of learning to get strong, we can innovate. This approach is different, but requires the same kind of effort. Innovation requires the development of mental fortitude. Here instead of leaning to bare the pain of tired muscles under weight, one learns to overcome the boredom and mundainess of repeating stuff over and over and over again. At the same time one has to consider how to make the process more efficient over the scope of the project. One has to consider all of the factors that could possibly affect the process, and figure out ways to eliminate them.

From these two instances, it seems that in order to get work done there is always some form of stress or load. Unlike muscle stress which at the end of the day makes me want to sleep; mental load keeps me up all night.
Lucas K Fontenelle

On comparing apples and oranges.

I suppose that it is human nature to compare things in order to
decipher one from another. If comparing was done chiefly for this
reason the world would be a better place, however when most compare
things, the classification is vertical. We seem to always see things
as better than or deficient from another.

The tendency to vertically compare things cam lead to trouble,
especially when we compare things that on the surface seem alike, but
upon closer examination, are vastly different. A few pairs of
objects that we compare are; boys and girls and apples and oranges.
One reason that it may seem fit to compare apples and oranges, is that
fundamentally, they are both fruit. They have beautiful skins, they
contain seeds, they are good for ones health. On the other hand, boys
and girls are both humans.

By placing objects or things into a broad category it makes it easier
for many people to easily grasp the concept that is being discussed.
This shortcut, like most others is not without consequence. For
example oranges are yellow-orange, but that doesn't mean that all
fruit are that color or even have half of the properties of oranges.
Added to this, there are several varieties and flavors of oranges.

In  the same way, while humans are the same, essentially, they come in
SO many flavors also.  The message here is that all things are unique. Even
though they may have commonalities with others that look like them.
Therefore, when dealing with people and things we should work hard
to not treat them by the expectations of our broad categorization.
--

On moving on today's data.

Researchers depend on on major statistical technique for determining if a comparison is valid: Regressions and their coefficient.  But the flaw in statistics, really is determining the mean, and evaluating the mean against the population.

The problem with todays business has the flaw of not enough data.  Volatility in many markets are based on the latest data.  We speed to sell or buy based on what we hear today.  

The problem with this is figuring trends. A simple way to think about it is a question we hear at the doctor.  "Do you consume alcohol regularly?"  Well there is no exact answer for that.  If you drink a pint a day, well yea.  If you drink 5 pints one day a month, well thats regular too... somewhat.  What if you drink a bottle of scotch and get hammered once a year on your birthday, or every six months? Thats regular too. The point here is that "regular" is more about volume over time than frequency.

If we use this concept to define market data, we see big changes based on the latest data.  We try to be ahead of the curve by buying or selling at the latest data point.  Such tactic is stupid. Data tends to trend over time and blips in either direction can have no effect on the average, especially if the average is based on a broad timeline.  Two percent today, could be wiped by -2 tomorrow and +1 on the day after.   

Since there is an obvious cost to trading, it would make sense to save the transaction costs and hold.