Lights

Sometimes,we are afraid to look outside especially when the sky is not so bright outside.  Sometimes the darkness makes us sad.  Bit what can we do?  Sometimes wee get paralysed by our fear.  Sometes there is nothing we can do about it.

Or can we?

Light is natural, it is also man made. Light is also the product of energy conversion.  Which leads to the observation that we can produce it if we try hard enough.

On belief and looking at another year.

So the year is winding down. One more week and lots of change has happened in the previous fifty. From one where big ideas and lots of faith kinda paid off. One where belief in a higher power has helped me to see and understand that this here life is full of possibilities, especially for those who believe.
So what do we have to believe in? Everything, and nothing.
First we have to believe in ourselves. Yea the voices in our heads are saying that we are great. We must believe that above the doubt and doubters. We must believe that we are competent at at least one thing. Don't believe the words of doubt. Do believe in infinite possibility.

Second believe that if we want to accomplish anything, we can get it done. This is easier done than said. A lot of energy is wasted trying to convince your self that you can't jump over th hurdle. Just jump. If you fall you get up and keep running. Failure is an option. Quiting isn't.

Third, there will be screw ups. Murphy's law and I paraphrase: shit must happen. Therefore in the plans allow twenty percent for: miscalculation, haters, the man, and incompetent humans. These are natural factors of living on our planet. And if you don't budget for them you can only expect eighty percent. See why over achievers put in one hundred and twenty percent? If this statement makes you feel overwhelmed, consider the above three paragraphs. And believe. Everyone can do anything they believe they can do. If you want to get it done you will get it done.

Maybe I should stop numbering now. Next, pray. Whether you pray to the God of the christians, or the gods of the greeks, hell the sun god, or the lack of a God, pray. Prayer is a way of admitting that " although I am awesome I am nothing without the influence of a greater power. My human shell is not powerful enough to accomplish 120 percent. And by myself I can't pass with nothing greater than a C. Prayer makes us have hope, and makes others feel obligated to help us. Prayer makes realize that it is okay to ask for help. Prayer makes us realize that it is okay to fall. It makes us diminish the ego.
Finally prayer urges us to believe.

Be thankful for what you have. When you are thankful for what you have, you begin to see that you could be worse, or worst off. Be thankful, and then work for more.

So these are the lessons that I learned. References to you or us, were the lessons that I learned. I am sure the can work for everyone.

Lucas K Fontenelle

Starting fresh

It can be amazing to do a fresh install.  Delete all the crap and start over.  Sure you have to remember all of the serial numbers to the important programs. And sure you have to back up the important stuff.  and sure it takes at least 30 minutes to flash the system.  But in the end the performance is awesome.
The message always perform a fresh install yearly.

Carrying loads.

In life we carry many loads. Some are physical, like glasses or bowls, and some are mental- worries are an example. Some things, or people are built or trained to carry heavy loads. Growing up, we had a small part of or farm in a valley, and on harvest days we had to carry most of the loads uphill. By the time I was twelve, I could carry about one hundred and thirty pounds of cabbage for about half a mile uphill.

Of course, I didn't start with the heavy basket of cabbage. As far back as I can remember, the loads started light. When I was five I carried a gallon of water, by the time I was ten, it was a box of tomatoes which was between thirty and fifty pounds. To an outsider this may seem strange, but for us it was fun. I was trying to out- do my brothers. So I learned fast and got stronger faster. The point here is that given the right conditions, we can learn to become stronger, we can learn to carry heavy loads.

There also exists another way. Instead of learning to get strong, we can innovate. This approach is different, but requires the same kind of effort. Innovation requires the development of mental fortitude. Here instead of leaning to bare the pain of tired muscles under weight, one learns to overcome the boredom and mundainess of repeating stuff over and over and over again. At the same time one has to consider how to make the process more efficient over the scope of the project. One has to consider all of the factors that could possibly affect the process, and figure out ways to eliminate them.

From these two instances, it seems that in order to get work done there is always some form of stress or load. Unlike muscle stress which at the end of the day makes me want to sleep; mental load keeps me up all night.
Lucas K Fontenelle

On comparing apples and oranges.

I suppose that it is human nature to compare things in order to
decipher one from another. If comparing was done chiefly for this
reason the world would be a better place, however when most compare
things, the classification is vertical. We seem to always see things
as better than or deficient from another.

The tendency to vertically compare things cam lead to trouble,
especially when we compare things that on the surface seem alike, but
upon closer examination, are vastly different. A few pairs of
objects that we compare are; boys and girls and apples and oranges.
One reason that it may seem fit to compare apples and oranges, is that
fundamentally, they are both fruit. They have beautiful skins, they
contain seeds, they are good for ones health. On the other hand, boys
and girls are both humans.

By placing objects or things into a broad category it makes it easier
for many people to easily grasp the concept that is being discussed.
This shortcut, like most others is not without consequence. For
example oranges are yellow-orange, but that doesn't mean that all
fruit are that color or even have half of the properties of oranges.
Added to this, there are several varieties and flavors of oranges.

In  the same way, while humans are the same, essentially, they come in
SO many flavors also.  The message here is that all things are unique. Even
though they may have commonalities with others that look like them.
Therefore, when dealing with people and things we should work hard
to not treat them by the expectations of our broad categorization.
--

On moving on today's data.

Researchers depend on on major statistical technique for determining if a comparison is valid: Regressions and their coefficient.  But the flaw in statistics, really is determining the mean, and evaluating the mean against the population.

The problem with todays business has the flaw of not enough data.  Volatility in many markets are based on the latest data.  We speed to sell or buy based on what we hear today.  

The problem with this is figuring trends. A simple way to think about it is a question we hear at the doctor.  "Do you consume alcohol regularly?"  Well there is no exact answer for that.  If you drink a pint a day, well yea.  If you drink 5 pints one day a month, well thats regular too... somewhat.  What if you drink a bottle of scotch and get hammered once a year on your birthday, or every six months? Thats regular too. The point here is that "regular" is more about volume over time than frequency.

If we use this concept to define market data, we see big changes based on the latest data.  We try to be ahead of the curve by buying or selling at the latest data point.  Such tactic is stupid. Data tends to trend over time and blips in either direction can have no effect on the average, especially if the average is based on a broad timeline.  Two percent today, could be wiped by -2 tomorrow and +1 on the day after.   

Since there is an obvious cost to trading, it would make sense to save the transaction costs and hold.

Why big business is needed to fix the US economy.

When the recession began sometime in 2006, and economists were debating whether we were in a recession, I recall many of them talking about the consumer would be the key to keeping the US economy growing.  Three years later there is still talk about the consumer driving the economy.  We keep hearing that consumer spending is about two thirds of the economy and of that one half of the retail sales in this country significantly impact the psychology of investors, bankers and the stock market.  We hear that consumer spending needs to be increased, yet we hardly hear from economists, a plan for increasing spending.

From a fundamental perspective, or perhaps from my pure science background, I see that if we expect the economy to grow, the powers that be (government, big business, bankers, corporations) need to support the consumers.  And they need to provide this support in a synergistic way.

Here’s why.  

If the government supports the consumer, by creating capital improvement jobs, supporting unemployment, more stimulus, it makes the country broke.  This means that the fed will have to print more money  thus devaluing the US currency; congress will have to raise taxes, because money does not come from thin air. Cutting spending will create more unemployment which would lead to the government needing more money to support unemployment. Thus, if we rely on government alone to lead us to fast growth, it just wont happen, or we would need a new kind of politician who doesn't mind loosing their job by raising taxes. In essence, we cant rely on Washington alone.

If we expect the banks to give consumers direct credit, so that they Jill public can go out and buy shoes at the mall, that too will be bad.  First Jill needs the credit to fix her home so that her family can make it comfortable.  Since she cant “flip” the house in six years, her family has to decide how they will make the 1000 sq foot house comfy until she can get a better job. Of course if credit is going to be used, especially at today’s rates,  it had better be important.  Say for a big purchase of a durable  good- to replace a broken water heater perhaps?  Or maybe for a project that will reduce energy consumption, like a new energy star appliance, insulating the attic, or new low-e windows.  Since 9.5 percent of people have no jobs, plus the additional 1.4 million that don't have jobs and but don't count in the statistic, credit probably wont happen.  And since many people foreclosed on their home reducing their 650 credit score by 150 or more, credit wont happen. And since income growth is small, and people need to pay off the debts they already have, and since credit lines have shrunk, credit wont happen. The odds of not getting credit are greater.  Thus we cant depend on the banks.

Some economists speak about the need for small business to jump-start the economy.  They have saved us before you see. But just like Joe and Jill public need to face the banks so they can buy stuff, so does Mom and Pop.  Small business need capital or money so that they can hire people for increased production; or for the new machine that will improve production or for the new hire that will work the new machine that will improve said production. Since small business has to make stuff before they sell stuff, and they first need the money to make the stuff, they need money.  And since the odds of not getting credit are higher, then small business will have to rely on increasing productivity the old way: make enough profits to buy more stuff to make more stuff.  That will take years.

Of course there are folks who can begin driving the economy.   Folks with money who don't need to to ask the banks for money.  Like the government, who’s members would loose their jobs if they provided more money for the economy increasing the unemployment cycle, and  Big Business.  If the large corporations with large cash reserves would quit sitting on their billions, and hire people, maybe they can start moving the economy again.  Large corporations need to hire to maintain their competitive edge, so they need brains for R&D, and the R&D grind. Large corporations need employees to expand the safety and reliability of their products.  For example Apple need folks to figure out why the iPhone 4 cannot be used as a “phone”;  Microsoft has to figure out how to prevent the “blue screen of death” on Windows 7 and death by Google. GE needs to make an LED light bulb that costs less than 25 bucks so that people can actually use the technology to reduce energy consumption, and BP and others need to figure out how to drill in deep water without killing the ocean, birds, and economies of the Gulf states.  And that's just to get started.

If the large conglomerates  hire more  employees, then the productivity of the company increases, which means the company will need to increase orders to small business.  Small business will make profits faster, which will enable them to have more money to hire more folks or buy the big machine that will increase their output.  They will then be able to hire folks to operate the machines that's make the stuff that they sell to the big companies.  If large companies hire more people, we get better and safer medicines, better health care, smarter applications.  Since more people have jobs they would  have more money to spend.  Joe could then consider taking the loan to improve the energy savings of his house, which will give small business more profits to hire some one to make more stuff for building homes.  Now that we have increased the workforce, and the home project is half way, Jill might say, “While were at it,  why not purchase an energy efficient fridge?  So now GE has to make more fridges, which they have to get the components from small business, who then have more money to hire more people to make more components from GE.  And since GE made profits on the refrigerators, they can now spend more money on making the LED light bulbs cheaper.  A win, win.

Then with all of the needs taken care of, people will then go out and buy stuff that they don't need, like more clothes, shoes, eat out and all that.

Big business needs to realize that they are the ones who need to be taking the risk at this economic era.  Banks are broke, small business's, don't have capital, and people don't have jobs.  Most of all, since the government is stretched holding all of these other components of the economy together, another force is needed for growth.  And since Europe is in the same economic boat as we are, and we need the oil form the Arabs, starting a war is out of the question.

Still, we may be facing a sadder reality.  The longer we wait to start moving the economy,  the longer the population of people who support retail will have to realize will really don't need to spend their money on clothes shoes and all of that junk that fills the pocket of retailers and if “trickling up” was possible, big business.  Thus the two thirds of the GDP which produce the 1% growth these days will continue to decline together with the stock market, the government and the big business that they support.